The Autism Numbers Are In. It’s Worse Than We Thought.

1 in 12.5 Boys in California

New data released this week by the CDC confirms what many of us in pediatrics and integrative child health have feared for years: we are facing an autism crisis—one unlike anything we’ve seen before.

According to the CDC’s latest Autism and Developmental Disabilities Monitoring (ADDM) Network report, autism rates have now reached:

• 📍 1 in 31 children nationwide

• 📍 1 in 20 boys nationally

• 📍 And an astonishing 1 in 12.5 boys in California

This is not a typo. This is not “just better diagnosis.”
This is a full-blown epidemic—and we need to start addressing it that way.

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Not Just More Cases—More Severe Cases

Perhaps even more alarming is the shift in severity. Nearly two-thirds of children diagnosed with autism in this report had severe or borderline intellectual disability. That’s not what we’d expect to see if the rise in autism were simply due to expanding diagnostic criteria or increased awareness. On the contrary, the percentage of children with higher IQs (>85) has been steadily decreasing in recent years.

The most impacted? Children of color. The latest data shows that Black, Hispanic, and Asian children not only have higher autism rates than white children, but they are also more likely to experience more severe forms of the condition.

We cannot keep ignoring this.

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The System Is Not Working

The rise in autism is not new—but the silence around it is deafening. This is now 4.8 times higher than the first CDC survey conducted 22 years ago.

In what other field of medicine would a five-fold increase in a disabling condition in just two decades be met with this level of indifference?

The Health and Human Services called it out directly in a statement this week:

“The autism epidemic has now reached a scale unprecedented in human history… Autism is preventable and it is unforgivable that we have not yet identified the underlying causes. We should have had these answers 20 years ago.”

They are right.

It is also important to keep in mind that autism is not one thing—it’s a spectrum, and every individual on that spectrum brings something unique, beautiful, and important to the world. For many, autism is simply a different way of thinking, sensing, and experiencing life. It’s essential that we honor and celebrate neurodiversity, and ensure that autistic individuals are embraced, supported, and respected in our communities.

At the same time, we must also acknowledge that for some families—especially those navigating severe autism with intense behavioral challenges, nonverbal communication, or co-occurring intellectual disabilities—the experience can be profoundly difficult and even debilitating.

Wanting to prevent or reduce the most painful, disruptive symptoms is not about erasing autism—it’s about compassion, dignity, and quality of life. We can hold space for both truths: that autism can be a gift, and that some aspects can be a daily struggle. Both deserve our attention, our empathy, and our commitment to doing better.

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Will We Have Answers by September?

Kennedy says his agency is assembling “world-class scientists” and launching an intensive investigation into the root causes of autism and other chronic childhood diseases. He has pledged that we may begin to see answers by September.

While I fully support urgent investigation and transparency, as a pediatrician, I also know that science doesn’t always work on deadlines. True understanding of complex, multifactorial conditions like autism will require long-term, prospective, and multidisciplinary studies—the kind of rigorous work that takes years, not months.

Still, shining a light on the issue, funding meaningful research, and demanding answers is a major and necessary step forward. We’ve waited far too long.

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Enough Is Enough

For too long, autism has been politicized, ignored, or brushed aside. We've been told it’s just better awareness. That it’s genetic. That it’s not something we can do anything about.

But that’s no longer acceptable.

📉 Life expectancy is dropping.
📈 Chronic childhood illness is rising.
👶 And now, 1 in 31 children—and 1 in 12.5 boys in California—are living with autism.

We owe it to our children to take this seriously. To ask hard questions. To stop worrying about whose narrative we might upset. To demand data, truth, and action—not just awareness.

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Where Do We Go From Here?

This crisis didn’t appear overnight, and it won’t be solved overnight. But the first step is naming it for what it is. A national health emergency.

We must:

• Fund truly independent, long-term research

• Prioritize prevention, not just treatment

• Reduce toxic exposures and ultra-processed foods

• Support early identification and root-cause solutions including discussions on vaccines.

• End the stigma around asking difficult questions

We don’t need to wait another 20 years for answers.
We need the courage to face this now.

If you want to go deeper into the controversial topics, this is exactly what I explore in my upcoming book, Between a Shot and a Hard Place.

Because enough is enough.
Our kids are counting on us.

—
Dr. Joel “Gator” Warsh
Integrative Pediatrician | Author | Advocate for Root-Cause Medicine